Written on September 12, 2026 This week some flavor of "AI is going to kill us all" went viral. In particular one where an employee put his personal probability of that happening above 10%. Which made me go to the Wikipedia page of P(doom) and I realized that Dario Amodei’s apparent probability of something bad happening seems to be between 10-25%.

And well, Dario then wrote about pacing the frontier. And Sam read it and wants to pace too. And well, so does Musk.

I encourage you strongly to read the post, because I think it’s a good one. Andyet, when I read the post I could not help but feel in strong opposition to it, despite the fact that I think I’m on the same page with regard to all observations and, to a large degree, the concerns. I thought it might be interesting to write down my present-day thoughts on this, even if for no other reason than for myself to look back at it a year or two from now.