Prediction markets platform Polymarket is mounting a lobbying campaign across Europe to convince regulators it should be treated as a financial services firm rather than a gambling operator. The New York‑based company, valued at more than $20bn, is meeting with the European Securities and Markets Authority (Esma), the European Commission, and national regulators in London, Brussels and other EU capitals. Polymarket argues its contracts resemble derivatives and should fall under Mifid rules, a stance that has gained traction in the US where the Commodity Futures Trading Commission oversees such markets as financial products.

In June, Esma chair Verena Ross met Polymarket’s legal team alongside lawyers from A&O Shearman and lobbyists from Hanbury Strategy, while executives also met FCA chief executive Nikhil Rathi. The UK regulator currently bans binary options for retail investors, calling them “speculative, gambling‑like” and high‑risk, and splits oversight between the FCA for financial or climatic events and the Gambling Commission for political and sports outcomes — Polymarket’s main revenue sources. European gambling authorities in France, Germany and Italy insist on local licences, and Esma has warned prediction markets are “rife with insider trading.” Polymarket recently joined Blockchain For Europe to bolster its advocacy.