---
title: "为什么独裁者关心舆论 | New York Times Top Stories"
description: 俄罗斯举选举仅关乎普京等少数人。独裁者为何在乎民意？他们凭选举维持合法性，识别威胁。
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---

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### 为什么独裁者关心舆论

New York Times Top Stories • September 18, 2026 at 5:47 AM ET

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观点 俄罗斯正在举行一场几乎没人在意的选举——除了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京及其核心圈子。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京在莫斯科的大克林姆宫。观点 为什么独裁者关心人们的想法 俄罗斯正在举行一场几乎没人在意的选举——除了俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京及其核心圈子。俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京在莫斯科的大克林姆宫。2026年9月18日 更新于美国东部时间上午5:47 令人惊讶的是，克里姆林宫非常在意俄罗斯人们的想法。负责保护俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京安全的联邦保护局（F.S.O.）——类似于美国特工局——拥有自己的社会学部门，对俄罗斯人进行民意调查，并将秘密结果送交克里姆林宫。掌管国家主导民意调查机构VTs IOM的社会学家在普京先生的体制中如此重要，以至于最近一份反腐基金会的报告称，他的妻子在社交媒体上炫耀一套价值总计63万美元的24个半克隆明包。克里姆林宫的首席“政治技术专家”谢尔盖·V·基里连科则在全国各城镇仔细搜集并分析人们在网上的言论。他们都在本周末的议会选举前加班加点，这是自普京先生于2022年发动对乌克兰的全面入侵以来的第一次选举。这个受到控制的政治表演正占据着数以千计俄罗斯官员的清醒时分。 campaign团队正在为“反对派”党派做宣传，这些党派都恰好支持战争。地方官员正在组织选票和出席率的后顾之忧。不太引人注目的候选人们占据着国家电视台的空气波段。但悬浮在整个行动之上，从政府民意调查到虚假政治活动，是一个巨大的问号：目的是什么？民意调查和公众舆论对独裁者意味着什么？无论是在俄罗斯还是中国，还是埃及或喀麦隆，他们都可以监禁他们的反对者，制定自己的规则，然后按照自己的意愿对其进行修改。为什么要举行选举呢？对像俄罗斯这样的独裁国家进行民意调查和举行选举似乎无关紧要，但政治学家们普遍发现恰恰相反。对于像普京先生这样的领导人来说，掌握公众舆论和动员选票不仅能为其增添一层合法性的外壳。它还可以通过展现人气支持的样子以及帮助识别新的内部威胁，从而延长一个政权的生存时间。因此，独裁者们忽视公众舆论是有其风险的。今年夏天，俄罗斯当局看到了长期被视为无关紧要的老派自由党耶宗科在公众舆论调查中开始崭露头角，成为唯一一个以反对乌克兰战争为平台参选的团体。在压力运动之下，俄罗斯最高法院在8月份将耶宗科从选票上移除，尽管其中一些候选人仍在参选。 这一行动遵循了政治学家们经常提到的格言：只有业余爱好者才会在选举当天作弊。尽管普京先生正在从政治学家安德烈斯·谢德勒称之为的“操纵菜单”中做出选择，选举仍然对独裁政府带来风险。这种仪式的基本目的可能是展现长期的合法性，但提供一次投票也可以邀请短期的不稳定和怀疑，特别是如果协调出现失误的话。 “他们面临这个普遍的独裁难题：如果你作弊太多，就会暴露弱点；如果你不作弊太多，就会面临可能威胁到你掌权的结果，”哥伦比亚大学政治学教授蒂莫西·弗里说。 弗里先生说，目的是制造“一个足够大的胜果，让你赢得比赛，但又不至于让大众觉得难以置信。”

[Read original article](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/09/18/world/europe/putin-russia-election-ideas.html)

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