Public Markets 24-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 18, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Geopolitical Tensions Grip Markets as Oil Surges
Escalating Middle East conflict sent Asian equities facing early declines as attacks targeting energy assets pushed crude prices past the $110 per barrel threshold. The strikes, which inflicted ‘extensive’ damage on a Qatar LNG facility and hit Iranian energy sites, are driving global volatility, leading Brazil’s Treasury to extend record intervention for a third straight day to contain market turbulence. This energy shock is compounding existing inflationary concerns, with fertilizer producer Yara curbing Indian output due to curtailed gas supply, and wheat prices climbing on fears of reduced farmer sowing from soaring fuel costs.
Central Bank Response & Treasury Markets
Amid the escalating geopolitical backdrop, the Federal Reserve held rates steady, though Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the central bank is in a ‘difficult situation’ due to the energy shock, which subsequently drove Treasury yields higher as Powell spoke. Bond traders have since lost faith in a 2026 rate cut following the rise in a key US inflation gauge and the oil surge, pushing expectations for any easing further out this year. This sentiment contrasts with JPMorgan Investment Management’s view, where Bob Michele suggested the Fed sent a “don’t worry about it” signal to markets despite the heightened risk. Meanwhile, foreign holdings of US Treasuries increased in January, led by Japan, even as the conflict casts a shadow over sentiment.
Political Fallout & US Policy Shifts
Political maneuvering in Washington continues alongside market uncertainty, with Republicans in Congress proposing to ban most voting by mail following calls from the President, aiming to restrict absentee options. On the international front, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard squared off against the President’s assertion regarding an imminent nuclear threat from Iran, contradicting intelligence provided by an aide. Furthermore, the Trump administration’s efforts to sell more stock in government-sponsored enterprises caused Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares to tank, hitting their lowest level in over a year. The administration also suspended the Jones Act, which mandates US-flagged ships for domestic cargo, to allow for easier fuel flow between US ports, though some analysts argue this is short-term thinking.
Corporate Dealmaking & Sector Performance
Despite market jitters, dealmaking activity is not expected to halt entirely, as Lazard’s global head of M&A suggested the war may slow timelines but is unlikely to derail overall activity. However, bankers are being advised by Goldman Sachs not to wait for complete market perfection before pursuing strategic mergers, while the firm also anticipates a double-digit pipeline of potential European IPOs this year. Spinoff entities are currently enjoying a renaissance, outperforming the S&P 500, while the leveraged finance market is preparing for a massive test as banks look to offload $18 billion in debt tied to the Electronic Arts take-private deal. Separately, value retailer Five Below announced an upbeat outlook following a higher fourth-quarter profit of $238.2 million.
Private Credit Stress and Investor Flight
The turmoil in the private credit space is deepening, with S&P Global Ratings lowering the outlook on Cliffwater LLC’s flagship fund to negative due to redemption requests straining liquidity. This investor exodus is now spreading into consumer loans, affecting funds holding debt from firms like Affirm and Block, though Bank of America analysts assert that these woes do not signal a repeat of the 2008 financial crisis. Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco) is actively steering clear of private credit loans being sold in the current market tumult, deeming them "pretty bad," even as banks lean in to finance some redemption requests.
Energy Market Adjustments & Global Trade
The global energy structure is rapidly adjusting to the conflict, with Saudi Arabia reviving over half its oil exports by utilizing its Hormuz bypass contingency plan, offering an early sign of resilience. Concurrently, the US has eased sanctions on Venezuelan state oil group PDVSA, leading US fuel makers to double their crude purchases from the nation amid the broader global energy squeeze. In Europe, the UK’s oil and gas lobby is urging tax reform to cut reliance on volatile LNG imports, while airlines see a brief window to capture direct flights while Gulf rivals face service disruptions.
Technology and Corporate Strategy
In the technology sector, Tencent Holdings exceeded profit expectations, driven by strong gaming and marketing revenue, and plans to more than double its 2026 AI investment to 36 billion yuan ($5.2 billion). Meanwhile, legal data firm Relativity, backed by Silver Lake, is reportedly tapping banks to arrange an initial public offering. Elsewhere, chipmaker Micron lifted its outlook following strong demand that nearly tripled sales, though earnings face high expectations for sustainability. Amid a contentious political environment, tech firms are showing behind-the-scenes backing for AI startup Anthropic, while avoiding direct confrontation with Trump administration officials over contract disputes.
Social Issues and Domestic Affairs
Serious allegations of sexual assault against the late civil-rights icon Cesar Chavez have spurred widespread outcry and caused Hispanic groups to cancel events. In local governance, Mayor Zohran Mamdani took a cautious first step toward reforming 911 response by creating a pared-down safety office, budgeted smaller than initially promised. Furthermore, the child care giant Bright Horizons paused its NYC expansion and surrendered permits following charges of worker abuse at a Manhattan branch.