The numbers behind Michael Carrick's Manchester United interim spell make for impressive reading on the surface. Ten wins from 15 Premier League games and 33 points collected from a possible 45 have put the club firmly in the Champions League conversation. Only Manchester City have earned more points during this period.

But digging deeper reveals troubling trends. Under Carrick, United are operating at just +0.1 expected goals per 90 minutes - virtually identical to Ruben Amorim's reign before him. Very little has fundamentally changed in terms of overall performance level.

The xG supremacy figures over the last eight matches make for uncomfortable reading. Only already-relegated Wolves and Burnley have performed worse than Manchester United's -0.3 per 90. For a team supposedly moving in the right direction, that's a significant red flag.

The betting market reflects this uncertainty - 5/4 with Sky Bet on Nottingham Forest avoiding defeat. The question for United's hierarchy is whether the improved results justify permanent appointment or if the underlying metrics suggest more of the same.