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Where Premier League Betting Odds Are Wrong This Season

ESPN Soccer •
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Ryan O'Hanlon uses DraftKings odds to identify where Premier League betting markets may be wrong. Conventional wisdom favors Arsenal to win the title, the traditional top five to qualify for Champions League, and the three promoted teams to go straight down. Erling Haaland is the clear Golden Boot favorite. However, combined probabilities in markets like most assists reach 220%, revealing inflated odds.

For the title, Brighton are undervalued at roughly 1-in-200 odds. With the youngest manager, Fabian Hurzeler, a talented young squad, and the sixth-best adjusted goal differential last season, Brighton offer more upside than the five favorites, each carrying significant uncertainty.

In the top-five race, Brentford are overlooked. Despite losing two strikers and their manager, they contended until late last season, field the third-youngest squad, and added high-upside signings Jannik Schuster and Mamadou Sangare.

At the bottom, Hull City stand out as a flawed promoted side, becoming the first team in the expected-goals era to reach the Premier League with a negative Championship xG differential.