Italy remains a top-tier favorite at 30-1 odds despite needing to win two playoff matches to reach the 2026 World Cup. Bookmakers like DraftKings and Caesars attribute their high ranking to roster quality and manager Gennaro Gattuso, though historical failures to qualify (2018, 2022) and early exits (2010, 2014) raise doubts. Simulations position them three-quarters of a goal worse than Spain, the projected favorite, but bettors still favor the Azzurri over teams like Colombia and Belgium. DraftKings reports Italy as the 12th-most bet-on team, with odds likely to shorten if they qualify.

Critics argue their inclusion in top-tier odds ignores their recent tournament struggles, while supporters highlight their star-studded squad and World Cup pedigree. Public backing could surge if they advance, but bookmakers stress their models prioritize statistical performance over intangibles like brand power.