Arsenal head into the Champions League knockout stage as the clear favorite, boasting a dominant league position and impressive European form. Their defense is among the best, and they possess the depth to handle the grueling knockout format. However, history shows favorites rarely close the deal, and Arsenal's recent patchy form and lack of knockout experience pose significant hurdles. Arsenal odds sit at 26.3%, but a 3-in-4 chance they won't win underscores the challenge ahead.

Bayern Munich, with their relentless attacking efficiency and Kane's big chances, are the second favorite. Their league phase performance was near-perfect, but defensive vulnerabilities against top teams like Arsenal raise doubts. Bayern conceded 2.0+ xG three times in eight matches, a worrying trend that could be exploited. While they take the best shots, their ability to protect leads in knockout football remains unproven.

It wouldn't be a surprise if a surprise team emerges. The extended knockout rounds, demanding four ties over months, have historically tripped up even the most formidable sides. FK Qarabag's miraculous run serves as a stark reminder that anything is possible, though their path to the final remains incredibly steep. The favorites must navigate a gauntlet, but the trophy remains elusive for all.