The Patriots added A.J. Brown to an offense that finished third in yards per game last season. The post-Tom Brady New England Patriots struggled until drafting Drake Maye third overall in 2024, but his rookie season resulted in a 4-13 record. In 2025, the Patriots tied for most wins in the NFL with 14 and most covers with 12, pushing games to the over (11-6 O/U) at a rate exceeded only by the Cowboys. The season began with New England as 75-1 Super Bowl long shots, dipping to 100-1 before ascending rapidly.

The Pats became AFC favorites after Thanksgiving and reached the Super Bowl. However, a tougher first-place schedule awaits in 2026. Maye remains one of the league's most promising young quarterbacks, but matching last season's success will be nearly impossible. Mike Vrabel's tumultuous offseason creates unnecessary distraction.

From a betting perspective, Tyler Fulghum is bearish, recommending UNDER 10.5 wins (-140). The Patriots face a difficult path to 11 wins after benefiting from a favorable schedule in 2025. Even modest regression could leave them with nine or 10 victories.