Mike Clay warns fantasy managers that high scoring rates rarely last. Historical data shows a 90.7% hit rate for players seeing a touchdown dip after a breakout year. This regression to the mean often happens regardless of talent because scoring relies on opportunity and luck rather than skill alone.

Jonathan Taylor faces a steep climb after scoring 20 touchdowns last season, as only six players have ever hit that mark twice. Similarly, Dallas Goedert is a prime candidate for a drop after scoring 11 times despite an expected total of just 5.1. Most players with 14-plus scores typically see an average decrease of 8.0.

Buffalo's offense faces double regression with Josh Allen and James Cook both projected for slight dips. Allen's 14 rushing scores were an outlier, while Cook's 14 totals exceeded his expected 10.1. These trends suggest that relying on last year's scoring totals leads to overvaluing players during the draft.

De'Von Achane faces further risk due to Miami's shift to quarterback Malik Willis and playcaller Bobby Slowik. These changes threaten Achane's receiving production and red zone usage. These specific projections rely on expected touchdown (x TD) metrics to identify unsustainable production across the NFL.