The Denver Broncos opened the 2025 season with 12-1 odds to win the AFC and +275 to win the AFC West. Those odds lengthened to 18-1 and +600 after a 1-2 start, but the team swept Kansas City and finished tied for the best record in the NFL.

Coming off a 14‑win campaign, the 2026 over/under is just 9.5, reflecting a roster that added Jaylen Waddle but missed top draft picks. Despite back‑to‑back 10‑plus win seasons under Sean Payton, the offense still questions the maturation of Bo Nix and the depth of the receiving corps.

The division race will test the Broncos against a recovering Patrick Mahomes‑led Chiefs and a shaky Justin Herbert-led Chargers. While a win total of 4.5 games in consecutive seasons signals promise, a competitive division may bring some regression.

The best bet is Bo Nix over 24.5 passing TDs (-105). With Waddle and Courtland Sutton’s additions, Nix’s past numbers suggest the line is conservative and worth taking the over.