Bill Barnwell, senior NFL writer for ESPN.com, projects the 14 teams that will make the 2026 NFL playoff field before the season kicks off. He emphasizes the historical variance in playoff returnees, noting that since 2002, about 56% of playoff teams return the following year, which translates to roughly eight teams per season. Barnwell plans to adjust his predictions by examining 2025 division champions and wild-card teams to better align with historical trends.

He splits last season's playoff teams into groups, noting that just under 60% of division winners make it back to the playoffs, which rounds to five of the eight 2025 champions. Further, about 43% of division winners repeat as champions, but that rate drops to 36% if removing the Patriots and Chiefs. In 2025, only one division champion retained its title—the Philadelphia Eagles—while four 2024 champs (Chiefs, Ravens, Lions, Buccaneers) missed the postseason.

Barnwell uses this data to tailor his field, aiming to pick five division winners to return and three to repeat as champions. He'll detail his choices along the way and conclude with his Super Bowl pick for the upcoming season.