Eight of the top‑25 preseason ADP picks fell at least 25% short of projected fantasy points in 2025, echoing six busts in 2024. Managers often overreact, as Christian McCaffrey’s slip to a 7.2 ADP turned him into a steal after a 2024 bust. The article asks whether this year’s underperformers are merely unlucky or warning signs for the overall 2026 season.

Brock Bowers missed five games with a knee injury, producing 37% of his points in just two outings, though his catch rate and depth metrics matched his rookie season. Marvin Harrison Jr. battled concussion, appendicitis and a heel issue, seeing his target share drop to 9% under quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Lamar Jackson posted worst completion (63.6%) and sack (9.8%) rates, hampered by hamstring troubles.

The piece classifies each bust as either a ‘bad season’—players like Omarion Hampton, Bucky Irving and Justin Jefferson whose decline stemmed from injuries or scheme changes—or a ‘bad sign’ for 2026, exemplified by Harrison Jr., Kyler Murray and Brian Thomas Jr. Fantasy owners should weigh health trends and coaching shifts before over‑reacting in next year’s drafts.