The 2026-27 NBA season was expected to be unusually competitive, with rebuilding teams improving and new draft lottery rules giving all 30 franchises a reason to win. At the top, though, the Oklahoma City Thunder, San Antonio Spurs and defending champion New York Knicks appeared to stand above the rest, and they returned 14 of their 15 combined starters this fall.
Two weeks into the season, that picture has shifted. A wave of injuries to star players has reshaped the league's most important races. Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace both suffered potentially season-ending injuries for the Thunder, Alex Caruso sprained his right ankle, and Chet Holmgren tore a patellar tendon in his right knee, which will sideline him for at least two months. Oklahoma City has since lost consecutive games by 24 and 21 points, being outscored in all eight quarters.
The Knicks are 2-4 and needed big comebacks just to win two games, while the Spurs have looked out of sorts against top competition and needed overtime to beat the injury-hit Jazz. ESPN's Basketball Power Index had the Thunder and Spurs at a combined 50% championship probability before the season, and about three-fifths for the three favorites including New York. Those odds have since fallen to just 38%, assuming Williams and Holmgren return before the playoffs.
Meanwhile, second-tier contenders have seized the opening. The Rockets lead the way at 5-1, including wins over both Oklahoma City and San Antonio. In the East, the 76ers, Pistons and Celtics have combined for a 16-3 start, fewer losses than the Knicks alone. The early results suggest that teams with strong rosters and ample draft assets, such as Houston and Detroit, may consider in-season trades with an eye on the Finals.
Source: ESPN NBA · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing