Charles Barkley enters the American Century Championship at Edgewood Tahoe Golf Course as a 7,500-1 long shot, matching his odds from last year and sitting at the bottom of the 80-player field. Mardy Fish and Joe Pavelski sit as co-favorites at 3-1, while Stephen Curry and John Smoltz follow at 7-2. The tournament begins Friday in Lake Tahoe, Nevada.

Betting action tells a different story than the odds board. Caesars Sportsbook lead golf trader Anthony Salleroli confirmed Thursday that Curry has attracted more tickets than any other competitor, yet Barkley represents the book's largest liability. Enough money has landed on Barkley at his massive price that a victory would cost Caesars more than any other outcome — a function of volume rather than confidence.

Barkley finished a career-best 58th in 2024 and 69th last year. The over/under on his 2025 finish sits at 63.5, with the majority of early wagers backing the under. Salleroli noted the market doesn't expect "Slim" to string together three competitive rounds.

Smoltz, who played with Barkley two decades ago, sees genuine progress. The weight loss and motivation are real, and Barkley has raised his personal bar each season. But until he translates range sessions into tournament scores, the betting public will keep fading him — and the sportsbooks will keep sweating the longest shot on the board.