Team USA faces elimination from the World Baseball Classic after a stunning 8-6 upset loss to Italy in pool play. The star-studded U.S. squad, which entered the tournament as a favorite, now needs specific tiebreaker scenarios to advance to the quarterfinals.

The Americans' path forward depends entirely on Wednesday's Italy-Mexico game. If Italy wins, Team USA advances automatically to the knockout stage. However, if Mexico wins while scoring five or more runs in nine innings, both the U.S. and Mexico would advance on tiebreakers.

Team USA's elimination would occur if Mexico beats Italy while scoring four or fewer runs. In that scenario, Mexico and Italy would advance based on the three-team tiebreaker formula, which considers runs allowed per defensive out in head-to-head games. Heading into the final pool game, Team USA's 0.2037 quotient in runs allowed per defensive out puts them in a better position than Mexico's 0.2083, but worse than Italy's 0.2222.