After beginning the regular season as long championship underdogs, the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays will carry sportsbook liability into the 2026 World Series. Milwaukee (-160) is favored over Tampa Bay (+140) as the teams face off, each seeking its club's first title, the first such World Series since 1980. The Brewers began the season at 35-1 odds, the 14th-best, while the Rays started at 80-1, the 22nd-best, according to DraftKings lines. If Tampa Bay wins, it would tie the 1991 Minnesota Twins as the longest preseason underdog to win a World Series, according to Sports Odds History.com.
The long early odds meant liability built up quickly for sportsbooks as bettors piled on. At those plus-money numbers, far fewer bets are needed to accumulate liability than for a favorite like the Los Angeles Dodgers, who were around +200 all season before being eliminated by Milwaukee in the National League Championship Series. Caesars Sportsbook said the Brewers became a liability due to late-season action backing them as a contrarian pick, and that remains the case. Biggio, the sportsbook's head of baseball, said Milwaukee has still been a loss for the house on World Series futures, though the Brewers helped on a game-to-game basis against the Dodgers and the Padres.
Bet MGM notes Milwaukee is also a loss for its future book, with a Tampa Bay title being a win. That is not the case everywhere. At Hard Rock Bet, 21.2% of in-state straight World Series tickets backed the Rays, compared with 7.7% in other states. Hard Rock also notes that Brewers bettors are wagering more than double the average Rays wager, leaving the book in a bind either way. Spokesperson Jon Chapper said Tampa Bay remains a major liability, with many Rays fans locking in longer odds early in the season.
Sportsbooks also face concerns about overall cash flow. Biggio said that while eliminating the Dodgers and Yankees was good for the house, a small-market matchup is not great for handle, and a Rays-Brewers series would not draw the kind of betting volume the Dodgers-Yankees matchup did a few years back. Milwaukee is favored at -164 for Game 1 in Milwaukee, with Tampa Bay at +135, and the over/under is set at 6 with pitchers Drew Rasmussen and Jacob Misiorowski projected to start.
Source: ESPN MLB · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing