Bill Connelly Oct 2, 2026, 06:15 AM ET Close Bill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.
September is both thrilling and misleading. The proverbial September Heisman winner almost never wins the actual Heisman, and in the past 21 seasons the team ranked No. 1 in Week 5 went on to win the national title only three times. There are plenty of shake-ups to come, in other words, and they might start this weekend.
Week 5 isn't as loaded with obvious headliners as Week 4 was, but eight of the top 12 teams in the AP poll are playing on the road, and three are favorites of less than a touchdown. Per SP+ projections, there's twice as good a chance of three favorites losing (23.9%) as there is of all eight winning (11.9%). The aesthetics are pretty pleasing throughout the weekend: We get a matchup of the game's two most exciting young quarterbacks, and Iowa-Ohio State gives us a chance to reminisce about a huge 2017 upset.
We also get a great Friday night slate, desperate home games for USC and Texas A&M and maybe the biggest UMass home game ever. We're going to take down some favorites, and we're going to have some fun. Here's everything you need to follow in Week 5.
Note: All times are Eastern. Keelon vs. Kamario! Yes! No. 7 Alabama at No. 16 Mississippi State (noon, ABC)Mississippi State and Alabama have met as ranked foes 14 times, and the Crimson Tide are 14-0. MSU's Kamario Taylor has created magic this season -- and won the September Heisman -- but is he ready to end an all-time losing streak? And can he outduel maybe the second-most exciting young QB in the country in Keelon Russell? Based on preseason SP+ projections, Mississippi State was looking at an average of 2.0 wins through four games; instead, the Bulldogs are 4-0.
Only the glorious UMass Minutemen overachieved more in September. Alabama also handled September with aplomb -- they're almost a full win ahead of schedule. Bama's offense looked like the finished article last Saturday, gaining 489 yards at 8.6 yards per play in a 49-18 win over South Carolina.
Russell was 13-for-15 for 234 yards and four touchdowns in the first half alone, and five players caught at least one pass of 20-plus yards. The Crimson Tide's run game has improved, and the passing game is fantastic. Meanwhile, Mississippi State ranks just 67th in yards allowed per dropback and gave up more than 400 total yards to both South Carolina and Missouri.
Taylor and the Bulldogs have been incredibly prolific, and they've done it despite lulls, spotting South Carolina a 16-0 lead over the first 20 minutes and getting outscored 24-3 in the middle two quarters against Missouri. Despite dialing in for only 30-45 minutes per week, MSU is averaging 43 points and 533 yards per game. On paper, Alabama's defense is the best the Bulldogs have faced, but the Tide have sprung a few more leaks than expected.
The run defense is excellent -- though it'll have its hands full with yards-after-contact machine Fluff Bothwell -- but the pass defense is suspect. The Tide D ranks just 81st in yards per dropback, and 22.7% of opponents' completions have gained 20-plus yards (125th). Rain could make this game more run-based, but Taylor is still incredibly dangerous.
This is a rough run of games for both teams. MSU is in the second of a five-week run of SP+ top-30 opponents; three of the next four are top-10. For Bama, four of the next five opponents rank 18th or better.
Both have overachieved thus far, but the challenges have only begun. Current line: Bama -5.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 5.4 | FPI projection: Bama by 9.0Iowa goes for the double No. 5 Ohio State at No. 14 Iowa (3:30 p.m., CBS)In 1962, Jerry Burns' Iowa team went just 4-5, but the last two of those wins came in Iowa City by matching 28-14 scores -- first against Ohio State, then against Michigan. It's the only time the Hawkeyes beat both Big Ten heavyweights in the same season, but now they have a chanc...
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