Scottie Scheffler remains the overwhelming favorite for the Players Championship, but his recent struggles on Thursdays raise questions. After leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach for three seasons, he’s dropped to 88th this year, a stark contrast to his 13-under start at TPC Sawgrass. Brooks Koepka, returning from a two-year hiatus, faces a daunting test: he’s never finished top-10 here and is 20-over on the par-3 17th hole.

Meanwhile, Rickie Fowler and Si Woo Kim emerge as sleepers—Fowler with a resurgent season (17th in strokes gained) and Kim’s seven top-15 finishes this year, including a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. The course itself has been tightened, with thicker rough and slower greens, adding pressure on contenders.