No. 7 Ole Miss is 5-1, sitting third in the SEC and heading to Austin to face a Texas team that feels like it's one more bad Saturday away from a full-blown crisis. The Longhorns dropped 12 spots to No. 19 after back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Florida. Questions surrounding Texas have multiplied: Is it Arch Manning? Is it Steve Sarkisian? Where is the run game? The defense has been holding things together, but Colin Simmons is expected to be out with an ankle injury, adding another problem for a team that hasn't solved the others.
Texas can't afford a third loss, and Ole Miss doesn't want to find out what a second would do to its playoff chances. The game is a major test for both sides. Texas is 13th in defensive success rate and inside the top 25 against both the pass and the run, though those numbers include Simmons. Florida rushed for 302 yards against the Rebels, offering Texas an opening on the ground. But the Longhorns went a combined 8-for-36 on third down against Tennessee, Oklahoma and Florida, and that offensive struggle keeps the analysis cautious.
The Rebels offense is where the outlook is most confident. Trinidad Chambliss completed 25 of 34 passes for 298 yards and three scores even in Ole Miss's 52-28 loss to Florida. Simmons accounted for 10.5 of the defense's 19 sacks, and the Rebels offense has allowed just five sacks all season. Without Simmons chasing him, Chambliss may get more time in the pocket.
The line sits at Texas -3.5, with the money line at Ole Miss (+136) and Texas (-162) and an over/under of 52.5. The prediction here is an Ole Miss team total over 26.5, based on Chambliss's chances against a defense missing its top pass rusher.
Source: ESPN General · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing