ESPN's analysis identifies five first-round NCAA tournament matchups with the highest upset probabilities, offering bracketologists a chance to identify Cinderella stories before the games begin. The model highlights VCU (39%) facing North Carolina with the Tar Heels' star freshman Caleb Wilson out for the season due to a broken thumb. This opens the door for the Rams' balanced attack, which ranks among the nation's best in 3-point shooting and free throw frequency.

Another high-profile clash pits NC State (37%) against BYU, where the Wolfpack's recent defensive struggles could be exploited despite their 2024 Final Four pedigree. Texas (37%) also enters as an upset candidate against BYU, though their own defensive issues and Matas Vokietaitis' foul trouble present challenges. The model further flags SMU (25%) against Tennessee as a sleeper, with B. J.

Edwards' return from injury potentially tipping the scales against the Vols' elite rebounding. These probabilities reflect a tournament where Cinderella hopes remain slim, but the First Four games could still shape early-round surprises.