ESPN betting analyst Pamela Maldonado looks beyond the usual College Football Playoff contenders this week, focusing on five non-Power Four teams with a real shot at the CFP: Boise State, New Mexico, Oregon State, UTSA and Louisiana Tech. All five have lost only to Power Four opponents. Heisman favorite Jeremiah Smith and national title favorites Notre Dame, Miami and Ohio State remain at the top of the board.
New Mexico is the team Maldonado trusts most, even at -172 odds on a futures ticket. The Lobos' defense can stop the run, cover receivers and generate pressure. Their only loss was 14-6 at Oklahoma, and their remaining schedule looks favorable. The concern is the passing offense, since long third downs can stall drives. They still lead the Mountain West and have already beaten a principal challenger.
Boise State, priced at +105 to reach the playoff, is Maldonado's preferred option from this group. The Broncos are ranked, have beaten Memphis and rely on a dependable run game. Their coverage is vulnerable, however, and they face Colorado State, which averages 39 points per game, followed by Oregon State. At -142 to win the Pac-12, Boise is a reasonable favorite rather than an automatic purchase.
Oregon State is the upset threat to watch. Quarterback Braden Atkinson has 24 touchdown passes against two interceptions, and freshman receiver Jesse Legree has become a weekly problem for defenses. The Beavers can exploit Boise's secondary, but they struggle against the run and getting off the field. At +132 to win the Pac-12, the market already views them as Boise's main challenger.
Source: ESPN General · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing