The always-reliable betting public has spoken: The Ohio State Buckeyes, Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Texas Longhorns are the teams to beat entering the 2026 college football season. Oddsmakers say the Oregon Ducks, Georgia Bulldogs, Indiana Hoosiers and Miami Hurricanes have similar power ratings to the Buckeyes, Fighting Irish and Longhorns. Bets on any of those teams are easy to understand. The national championship wagers that Hard Rock Bet took from one customer way back in January are tougher to rationalize. On Jan. 21, a bettor walked into Hard Rock's retail sportsbook in Hollywood, Florida, and placed a $991 bet on the Oklahoma State Cowboys to win the national championship at 1,000-1 odds. Five days later, the same bettor returned and put another $500 on the Cowboys, according to the sportsbook. Combined, the two bets would produce a payout of nearly $1.5 million if Oklahoma State wins the national championship. Oklahoma State is revamped under new coach Eric Morris, but winning a national title after going 1-11 last season would be quite the turnaround. Still, we're not here to judge the Oklahoma State bets, but we are indeed curious.

Point spreads are shrinking, Hurricanes homerism is off the charts, and the sharps are circling some under-the-radar teams. And, by the way, Oklahoma State isn't the only team inspiring curious bets. Spread shrinkage In an era when everything in college football seems to be growing -- from conferences to the playoff to players' salaries -- one element of the game has been shrinking: the point spread. The average point spread on games between FBS teams over the past three seasons has dropped to around 10.5, more than a point below historical averages (11.7). The last three seasons rank among the five lowest average spreads in modern history, with only 1981 (10.4) and 1984 (9.7) featuring lower lines, according to ESPN Research. A 2025 academic study found that NIL is correlated with smaller point spreads, tighter margins of victory and more losses by favorites. The average gap between the actual margin of victory and the closing point spread fell to 11.84 points last season, a 15-year low. In addition to NIL, conference expansion is driving the point-spread shrinkage. Leagues are bigger, resulting in more conference games with smaller point spreads than your typical SEC-Sun Belt mismatch, for example. The SEC will play nine conference games this season. Las Vegas oddsmaker Chase Michaelson, who oversees the college football betting market for Circa Sports, says an SEC team trading a small-conference team for a conference opponent can result in a 40-point difference in power ratings in the matchups. He says that's why the average point spread is shrinking."Overall, I think the gap is widening between the power conferences and non-power conferences," he said. The average point spread in conference games the past two seasons was 9.1, an all-time low. Meanwhile, the average line on nonconference games grew to 15.7 last season, a 12-year high. Public action In the playoff era, only one preseason betting favorite has gone on to win the title (Alabama Crimson Tide in 2017). Over the past four seasons, the preseason favorite hasn't even reached the semifinals. The betting public has not been deterred by that little bit of history, however, and has loaded up on the three favorites this offseason. At Bet MGM, Texas, Notre Dame and Ohio State account for nearly 50% of the total amount wagered on the national title odds. Bettors have wagered more money on Texas to win the national championship than any other team at Draft Kings. Hard Rock Bet says the four largest championship bets it took this offseason were on Ohio State. Coincidentally, Ohio State has attracted more national championship wagers from bettors in Michigan than any other team.