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Canelo Alvarez vs. Christian Mbilli: Picks & Analysis

ESPN General •
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Canelo Alvarez will look to win back one of the titles he lost to Terence Crawford in September 2025 when he faces WBC super middleweight champion Christian Mbilli on Saturday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia (DAZN PPV, 1 p.m. ET).

Alvarez (63-3-2, 39 KOs) holds a significant edge in experience, having fought in 28 title bouts during his career. This will be Mbilli's first world title fight since he was elevated from interim champion to full WBC champion in January. Mbilli (29-0-1, 24 KOs) is a relentless pressure fighter with good punching power and effective combinations. Unlike Alvarez, Mbilli tends to be more dangerous in the later rounds. Canelo will look to capitalize on his trademark left hook to the body and head, but he must watch for Mbilli's looping right hand over the top.

Boxing analyst Raul Marquez, a retired former junior middleweight champion, believes the style matchup favors Canelo. He says Canelo excels against aggressive fighters and is a strong counterpuncher and body puncher. Marquez argues Canelo should use the jab and a steady body attack early, and stress that he must throw three- and four-punch combinations rather than loading up single shots, a mistake he made against Crawford.

For Mbilli, Marquez says the key is starting fast, cutting the ring and forcing the action, while using feints, defense and head movement to avoid clean shots. Marquez adds that Canelo must perform at roughly 50-60% of his best form to avoid a long night. The fight promises to test whether Alvarez's experience can overcome Mbilli's relentless aggression.

Source: ESPN General · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing