US Yields Fall From 2002 High as Oil Dips, Bessent Vows On Debt

US bond yields retreated from 2002 highs as oil prices dipped below $100 a barrel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted at a Pennsylvania fireside chat that government debt can be tamed through growth and spending restraints, saying the curve would start "bending." Yields on the 10-year and 30-year fell to 5.27% and 5.63%, while two-year yields were little changed. Crude prices slipped on increased supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.

However, investors met Bessent's remarks with skepticism, citing a 6% deficit and lack of concrete plans. Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned the US is approaching limits of its debt cycle, potentially facing a crisis within three years if spending outpaces revenue. He noted Treasuries are vulnerable to reduced demand from China and Japan.

Meanwhile, HSBC strategists maintained a wager on the gap between five- and 30-year Treasury yields moving wider amid persistent volatility.

美国国债收益率从2002年高位回落，油价跌破每桶100美元。财政部长斯科特·贝森特在宾夕法尼亚州的圆桌会议上表示，政府债务可通过增长和支出约束来控制，称收益率曲线将开始‘弯曲’。10年期和30年期收益率降至5.27%和5.63%，而2年期收益率基本持平。原油价格因荷尔姆海峡供应增加而下滑。然而，投资者对贝森特的言论持怀疑态度，引用了6%的赤字和缺乏具体计划。桥水创始人瑞·达利奥警告称，美国可能在三年内面临债务周期的极限，若支出超过收入将可能爆发危机。他指出，由于中国和日本需求减少，国债面临风险。与此同时，汇丰策略师仍押注五年期和30年期国债收益率差距在持续波动中扩大。