Surging Brazil Currency Helps Lift Sugar and Coffee Futures

Surging Brazil Currency Helps Lift Sugar and Coffee Futures Cole Martin A surprise lead for Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil’s first round of the presidential election sent the nation’s currency soaring, helping lift prices of the biggest soft commodities exports from South America’s agricultural powerhouse. Raw sugar futures rose as much as 4.4% to hit their highest level since December 2024, while arabica coffee futures rose as much as 3.8%. The gains tracked the Brazilian real’s surge of as much as 5% against the US dollar, the currency underpinning the contracts. Brazil is the world’s largest grower of both crops, and a stronger local currency can discourage farmer selling unless the US dollars they receive rise in tandem.

"The Brazilian real is strong today, which is a nice bullish tailwind for agriculture markets," said Dave Whitcomb, founder of Peak Trading Research. "There’s also a sense that funds might have shed too much length given all the Brazil risk ahead of us." Investors had widely expected left-wing incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva to exit the first round of voting ahead, but the right-wing senator Bolsonaro is now the front-runner to win the Oct. 25 presidential runoff after taking 47% of the early vote. Bolsonaro is seen as more market-friendly and more likely to cut public debt, which supports the real. The strengthening real is compounding other price supports, particularly in raw sugar. The sweetener rose more than 5% on Friday, which "was indicating that the market would continue the rally today" even before the spike for Brazil’s currency, said Brazil-based Stone X analyst Marcelo Bonifacio.

Meanwhile, an intensifying El Niño is already hurting top sugar producers, including with excessive rainfall that has slowed cane harvesting in Brazil. Prices surged from below 14 cents a pound in June to more than 20 cents a pound on Monday as analysts increasingly expect a deficit over the 2026-27 season and as speculators, who pared back shorts over the week ended Sept. 29, piled into bullish bets."It seems the market is convinced that sugar will fall well short of early and recent estimates," Green Pool Global analysts wrote in a Monday note, cutting their Center-South Brazil sugar output forecast for the current season by 3%. Coffee meanwhile has pared back some of Monday’s biggest gains, after analysts at Hedgepoint Global Markets estimated a global surplus of 8.9 million bags for the current crop year."For the first time in years, the numbers point to a market with more room to breathe," Hedgepoint Chief Commercial Officer Carlos Costa said in a statement. "Brazil is recovering, and a global surplus is beginning to take shape."

巴西货币飙升提振糖和咖啡期货价格。Cole Martin报道，巴西总统选举第一轮投票中弗拉维奥·博索纳罗意外领先，推动国家货币飙升，帮助提升南美农业大国的主要软商品出口价格。生糖期货最多上涨4.4%，触及2024年12月以来最高水平，而阿拉比卡咖啡期货最多上涨3.8%。这些涨幅追踪巴西雷亚尔对美元的升值，升幅最多达5%。巴西是这两种作物的世界最大种植国，当地货币走强除非美元计价的收益同步上涨，否则可能劝阻农民抛售。

“巴西雷亚尔今天走强，对农业市场是一个很好的看涨因素，”Peak Trading Research创始人Dave Whitcomb说。“人们也认为，考虑到即将到来的巴西风险，资金可能已经过度抛售。”投资者普遍预计左翼现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦会在第一轮投票中落选，但右翼参议员博索纳罗现在成为了在10月25日举行的总统决选中胜出的热门人选，他在早期投票中获得了47%的选票。人们认为博索纳罗更亲市场，更有可能削减公共债务，从而支持雷亚尔。雷亚尔走强正在叠加其他支撑因素，特别是生糖。糖价周五上涨超过5%，“表明市场在货币走强前就将继续今日的上涨”，巴西Stone X分析师马塞洛·博尼法西奥说。

与此同时，加剧的厄尔尼诺现正伤害顶级糖生产商，包括巴西因过量降雨导致的收割进度放缓。分析师越来越预期2026-27季出现供应缺口，糖价从6月的每磅14美分以上飙升至周一的每磅20美分以上。周 ended Sept. 29 结算周内，抛售者减少空头头寸的投机者涌入看涨押注。“市场似乎确信糖价将远低于早期和近期预测，”Green Pool Global分析师在周一的报告中写道，将巴西中南部当前季节的糖产量预测下调3%。与此同时，分析师Hedgepoint Global Markets估计，当前作物年度全球咖啡结余8.9百万袋，咖啡价格已从周一的最大涨幅中回吐部分收益。“多年来首次，数据指向一个更有呼吸空间的市场，”Hedgepoint首席商业官卡洛斯·科斯塔在声明中表示。“巴西复苏，全球咖啡结余开始形成。”

关键实体：公司：Peak Trading Research、Stone X、Green Pool Global、Hedgepoint Global Markets | 人物：弗拉维奥·博索纳罗、Dave Whitcomb、马塞洛·博尼法西奥、路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦、卡洛斯·科斯塔 | 地点：巴西、中南部巴西、美国