Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Market Moves
The S&P 500 ended lower after Boston Beer reported weaker fourth-quarter revenue and warned that shifting tariff policies could significantly impact its guidance for the year. PayPal extended its rally following reports that Stripe is considering an acquisition of all or parts of the company. Lucid Group posted higher fourth-quarter revenue as electric-vehicle production and deliveries ramped up, while Cava saw revenue rise 21% on higher prices and new restaurant openings.
Tech & AI Disruption
The Nasdaq bounced back after AMD and Meta announced a major AI chip deal, though investors remained cautious about tech shifts. Core Weave is seeking an $8.5 billion loan from banks including Morgan Stanley and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group to finance cloud computing capacity for Meta Platforms. Thomson Reuters emerged as the latest AI winner after its legal tools earned praise from Anthropic, while San Disk fell 5% following a short call from Citron Research.
Private Markets & IPOs
The AI-induced tech selloff spoiled the IPO parade as this year was supposed to be a blockbuster for technology offerings. Workday forecasted up to 13% subscription revenue growth but saw shares fall 6% on the news. Rubrik received a Buy rating from DA Davidson on an attractive entry point after a recent pullback, while HP dialed down fiscal-year expectations as memory prices drove up costs.
Macro & Policy
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said rates likely on hold "for some time" as recent economic data showed improvement in the labor market. Fed Governor Christopher Waller doesn't see major upheaval from artificial intelligence, while Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called Powell a 'first ballot Hall of Fame Fed Chair'. Bond traders are betting on Fed rate cuts spilling into 2027 instead of rate hikes.
Energy & Commodities
US natural gas fell to a five-month low as forecasts shifted warmer, indicating lower demand for heating and power-plant fuel. Baker Hughes CEO discussed market uncertainty on oil as prices held near a seven-month high amid concerns about potential fallout from a US strike on Iran. Goldman Sachs became cautious on US LNG as a supply wave threatened prices, while US solar imports faced preliminary duties as high as 146% from India, Indonesia, and Laos.
International Markets
Japan's drive to unlock $840 billion in cash lifted stock market outlook as a new revision to the corporate governance code may free up funds held by listed companies. French power prices dropped to their lowest since June as solar generation surged. Colombia slapped 30% reciprocal tariffs on more than 60 goods from Ecuador, escalating a trade dispute between the two neighboring countries.
Corporate Governance & Regulation
The SEC approved Wisdom Tree's 24/7 tokenized money market fund, marking a new breed of money-market fund on Wall Street. Telecom Italia proposed a €400 million stock buyback and 1-for-10 reverse stock split to overhaul its equity profile after selling assets. Senator opened a Binance probe into alleged Iran and Russia violations following reports of funneling nearly $2 billion to designated groups.
Deal Activity
Goldman Sachs is set to move into Credit Suisse's Milan office, underscoring the US bank's growing footprint in Italy. Hyundai Motor proposed building hydrogen fuel-cell infrastructure in Canada as part of South Korea's submarine bid. South Bow Corp. is considering expanding its pipeline system, potentially reviving a version of the canceled Keystone XL project.
Private Credit Concerns
Activist investor Boaz Weinstein warned "wheels coming off" private credit funds as turmoil surrounding Blue Owl Capital's funds exposed deeper cracks in the $1.8 trillion industry. Deutsche Bank downgraded Blue Owl on weaker retail credit flows, while Dan Loeb said the "lost art of short selling" is making a comeback as opportunities emerge to bet against crowded trades.