Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 18, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
Geopolitical Shocks Drive Energy Markets Higher
Global energy markets reacted violently after coordinated strikes targeted critical infrastructure across the Middle East, including attacks on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG terminal, the UAE’s Habshan gas facility, and Iran’s South Pars gasfield within the last day. Benchmark U.S. crude surpassed $110 a barrel as the escalating conflict in the region began to roil trading flows, sparking the largest gaps seen between U.S. crude and international markers, even as U.S. commercial crude inventories unexpectedly climbed by 6.2 million barrels. The surge in oil prices, which also drove wheat prices higher due to anticipated increases in fuel and fertilizer costs for sowing, prompted JPMorgan Investment Management’s Bob Michele to suggest the Fed was sending a “don’t worry about it” message to markets despite the geopolitical risk and rising inflation concerns. This situation is complicated by intelligence reports contradicting previous administration justifications for military action, as U.S. intelligence saw no change in Iran’s missile capabilities prior to the conflict.
Fixed Income & Monetary Policy Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve’s messaging regarding future rate cuts is finally taking hold in the bond market, though caution remains prevalent as geopolitical risks mount. Bond markets are now pricing out aggressive rate cut expectations, following months of signals from the central bank that further easing was not guaranteed, a sentiment echoed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell stating the bank was in ‘a difficult situation’ when discussing dimmed rate cut hopes. This uncertainty is causing U.S. stocks to decline as expectations waver, although overseas holdings of Treasuries increased in January led by Japan, suggesting continued foreign demand for safe assets despite domestic political noise. Meanwhile, in Brazil, a modest initial rate cut by the central bank is anticipated by money managers to support the local currency, the real, and slightly ease pressure on short-term yields.
M&A and Banking Sector Shifts
Activity in investment banking continues despite geopolitical headwinds, though deal timelines may stretch, according to Lazard's global head of M&A, who believes the war with Iran is more likely to slow the pace of dealmaking than derail overall M&A volumes. In executive moves, Wells Fargo & Co. has hired Derek Keller from UBS Group AG to serve as managing director and head of M&A structuring, signaling continued competition for top talent. Separately, major banking clients of Janus Henderson, including Morgan Stanley and Citigroup, are reportedly urging the asset manager to reject a proposed deal with Victory and instead favor a partnership with Trian and General Catalyst. On the IPO front, Silver Lake-backed legal data firm Relativity has tapped banks to arrange an initial public offering in the U.S., while Chinese luxury EV maker Voyah begins trading in Hong Kong without raising any new capital in its listing.
Equities and Corporate Performance
Retail and technology sectors showed divergent performance, with value retailer Five Below Inc. seeing shares jump 7% in after-hours trading following an outlook that beat expectations, partly fueled by planned store openings, as the company reported a fourth-quarter profit of $238.2 million. In contrast, shares of government-sponsored enterprises Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac tumbled to a yearly low as investors expressed doubt over the Trump administration's plans for selling off more stock. Elsewhere, Micron Technology nearly tripled its sales, driven by strong demand and a tight supply environment for memory chips, while Williams-Sonoma issued an upbeat forecast of 2% to 6% comparable sales growth despite reporting lower fourth-quarter results. Investors are also paying attention to corporate structure, as pared-down spinoffs are outperforming conglomerate shares, leading even Madison Square Garden Sports to reportedly consider a breakup.
Political & Regional Developments
Escalating tensions in the Middle East risk becoming a windfall for Moscow, with analysts warning that America’s conflict with Iran is a gift to Vladimir Putin, necessitating allied efforts to limit Moscow’s gains. On the domestic front, Republicans in Congress are proposing to severely limit mail-in voting, pushing for an outright ban on the practice. Meanwhile, in the Gulf, the highly globalized economy of the UAE has felt the impact of conflict more acutely than more insulated Saudi Arabia, while the UK is moving to procure more anti-drone missiles, which have proven effective against strikes by Iran and its proxies. In unrelated news, gold prices found technical support following an overnight 2.2% drop in front-month futures, as traders sought recovery after the previous session’s losses.