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Middle East Conflict 'Indirect' Real Estate Impact

Real Estate Investor •
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The US-Israeli strikes on Iran have created ripple effects across the global real estate investment community, though most executives at the PERE Network Asia Summit in Singapore believe the impact will be indirect rather than direct. Qatar Investment Authority and Mubadala Investment Company were notably absent from the conference, with executives unable to travel due to widespread flight cancellations following the weekend strikes.

Several fund managers reported minimal direct impact on their investment strategies. Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which invests primarily in Europe, the Americas, and Asia-Pacific rather than the Gulf region, said the conflict won't affect its real estate allocation plans for the next 12 months. Similarly, Dutch pension fund manager Bouwinvest Real Estate Investors views the region as currently uninvestable but recognizes the Gulf's long-term growth potential.

However, concerns persist about indirect consequences. Canadian pension plan La Caisse has paused any Middle East real estate investment plans to assess how the conflict might affect oil prices, inflation, and interest rates. Link Asset Management highlighted how geopolitical volatility increases currency and interest rate fluctuations, with hedging costs alone reducing returns by 200-225 basis points. Industry veterans acknowledge that geopolitical uncertainty has become a permanent factor in real estate underwriting, requiring investors to factor in a wider range of potential outcomes when evaluating opportunities.