Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 17, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
Geopolitical Tensions & Commodity Markets
Global markets reacted sharply to escalating Middle East conflict, with oil prices jumping following strikes on Abu Dhabi upstream projects and a tanker off Fujairah port, leading Goldman Sachs to predict refined products like diesel and jet fuel would suffer the largest impact. The disruption has prompted British Airways to halt flights, suspending services to Amman, Dubai, and Tel Aviv until May 31, while airlines debate whether to accept market forces or hedge against future volatility as oil prices remain firm. Concurrently, the Iran conflict is causing upheaval in niche defense metals, with tungsten and germanium prices seeing notable jumps due to shortage concerns, even as Chinese aluminum producers benefit from rerouted raw materials benefiting their supply chains.
European & UK Market Reaction
European allies formally rejected President Trump’s demand to join a proposed Hormuz armada, underscoring political distance from Washington’s strategy regarding Iran, which some analysts suggest lacks a cohesive exit plan. This political fragmentation is weighing on UK assets, with the FTSE 100 set to decline as the Pound retreated amid heightened regional tensions, while Spain cautioned the EU against suspending the Emissions Trading System (ETS) in response to soaring oil prices, calling such a move a “big error”. Further complicating European infrastructure planning, the Rail Baltica high-speed rail project is now expected to finish a decade late, as defense priorities divert resources.
Financial Sector Strategy & Credit Risks
BNP Paribas is targeting near doubling its asset management pretax income by 2030, a plan that follows its acquisition of AXA Investment Managers, with the bank betting that Europe’s stricter regulation and financing needs will allow its private credit unit to thrive despite a US downturn. This focus on private credit comes as risks in the sector are becoming apparent; Davidson Kempner warned that distress issues are deeper than acknowledged, echoing concerns over bank entanglement demonstrated by the collapse of Century Capital, which was tipped into insolvency by Blue Owl after uncovering irregularities. Meanwhile, lenders are grappling with severe difficulty in securing insurance coverage for massive data centre projects, causing some investors to withdraw from proposed deals.
Asian Markets & Regulatory Shifts
While Middle East fears kept crude prices elevated, Asian stocks received an AI-driven boost, creating a rare inverse correlation between energy and equities seen since the conflict began. In China, however, equity investors have not seen commensurate returns, with questions raised over who captured the market gains, as Beijing tightens rules restricting China-incorporated firms from seeking Hong Kong IPOs, threatening an established fundraising route following a recent deal boom. Separately, the CEO of the Philippines Stock Exchange forecasts a standout year for fundraising, driven by expected “mega” initial public offerings.
Central Banks & Treasury Movements
Global central banks, facing mounting inflation pressure from energy disruption, saw the Reserve Bank of Australia hike rates, though the resulting move in the Australian Dollar suggested the decision was perceived as dovish relative to market expectations swinging sharply versus the USD. In Asia, Japan’s Finance Ministry conducted an auction for 800 billion yen of 20-year government bonds, which saw demand in line with the 12-month average, suggesting steady appetite despite oil-fueled inflation worries. This stability was mirrored by the Swiss National Bank largely refraining from foreign exchange interventions in late 2025, adhering to its recent pledge to the US not to manipulate the Franc for economic advantage.
Corporate Finance & Wealth Management
African insurer Old Mutual Group sustained record profit for the second consecutive year, driven by strong performances in its general insurance and wealth segments, alongside elevated investment returns. In wealth management news, Canadian billionaire Stephen Smith and his family holding company have agreed to acquire a minority stake in The Economist Group. Meanwhile, in the US, states are increasingly looking toward precious metals as a hedge against instability, exemplified by Wyoming’s decision to store 2,312 ounces of gold in an old newspaper building.