Markets 24-Hour Briefing
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Energy Markets & Geopolitical Impact
Oil prices surged as Iran named Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba as his successor, signaling continuity during the crisis. Saudi Aramco jumped the most since April 2023 as the Iran war entered its second week, prompting supply disruptions that may send oil prices higher when global markets reopen. Iraq's oil output plunged about 60% as the Iran war blocks tankers, with production collapsing by about 60% as there aren't enough tankers to load the nation's crude.
Commodity Volatility
Traders are piling into options as supply disruptions from the war in Iran send oil and other commodity prices soaring. Gas, diesel, and jet fuel prices climbed as Iran war chokes supplies, with consumers worldwide fast feeling the effects of the widening Iran war. Phillips 66 changed its board to avoid a new proxy battle with Elliott, drawing a line under one of the activist hedge fund's most bitterly fought recent campaigns.
Market Sentiment & Investment Flows
Goldman Sachs says hedge funds add short bets on US stocks amid rout, with fast-money investors ramping up bets against US stocks, wagering on more pain ahead as tensions in the Middle East show few signs of subsiding. Bond traders already had their hands full, 'then a war breaks out,' as Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Daniel Ivascyn was preparing for turbulence even before last weekend. Bond traders await US inflation data with oil rise in focus, to a series of inflation reports, including the consumer price index for February, at a moment when surging oil prices are largely dictating flows in the $31 trillion market.
Emerging Markets & Global Trade
The Iran conflict puts the emerging-markets revival to the test, dealing a blow to one of Wall Street's favorite trades. More LNG tankers divert toward Asia as Qatar outage cuts supply, with several more liquefied natural gas shipments diverting toward Asia from their course to Europe as tensions in the Middle East curb global supply and boost competition for the fuel. America's natural gas bounty is cushioning US markets from global shocks, with the US ending the winter heating season with plenty of gas in storage, unlike in Europe, where inventories are unusually low.
Private Markets & Corporate Moves
KKR eyes a multibillion-dollar sale of data center cooling company Cool IT Systems as the AI boom boosts valuations. Private credit's gate-crashers are forcing funds into a brutal spot, with the world's largest alternative asset managers confronting a painful choice: block investors who want to exit private debt funds and deal with potential blowback, or honor the requests and betray investor trust.
Technology & Innovation
Samsung seeks AI deals to challenge Apple's smartphone lead, with the Korean giant's device chief saying its future Galaxy devices will host multiple models as users mix and match AI tools. Women wanted: Kalshi pushes to expand far beyond sport bets, looking to get more young women interested in the prediction-market platform and expand beyond sports and its core male customer base.
Regional Market Developments
Swiss voters put cash into constitution to guard against its demise, assenting to a push designed to guard against the demise of physical money. Gulf businesses buy up political violence insurance as conflict spreads, with data centers, energy projects, and hotels moving to limit potential losses. Oman's Muscat airport limits private jet flights as wealthy leave the Gulf, seeking to prioritize government and commercial relief services as attempts to reopen other centers falter.
Market Outlook & Analysis
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright says 'fear premium' in oil markets will ebb, seeking to counter market warnings about an extended Middle East war, saying global energy supplies are sufficient and the surge in oil prices reflects a "fear premium" rather than fundamental supply shortages. The Iran war just made things even more complicated for James Dolan's maze of companies, with the conflict adding new layers of complexity to corporate valuations and market dynamics.
Private Equity
Private Equity Perspective
Private equity firms are shifting toward entrepreneurial treatment over public acclaim, according to Sifted.
Sector Investment
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