Meta is reportedly developing a prediction markets app called Arena, with Mark Zuckerberg personally directing the project as a top company priority. According to sources, the experimental app aims to compete with established platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, leveraging Meta's massive Facebook and Instagram user base for growth.

The move follows Meta's pattern of copying successful internet trends - Instagram Stories mimicked Snapchat, Reels followed TikTok, and Threads launched years after Twitter's success. Prediction markets have existed for over five years with near-industry dominance by existing players, making Meta's entry a significant shift in the space.

Unlike current platforms where users bet real money on events like Paris temperatures or market movements, Arena would initially use a video-game style points system. Company insiders suggest Meta hasn't ruled out adding real money transactions later. This approach mirrors Meta's previous prediction market attempt with Forecast, which ran from 2020 to 2022 using points before shutting down.

The strategy raises questions about Arena's appeal given that prediction market users typically seek monetary rewards. Badges and virtual points may not attract the same audience that drives Polymarket's popularity. Whether Meta can successfully enter this crowded market remains uncertain.