XRP has rebounded nearly 12% from February lows, climbing from $1.27 to $1.43 before stabilizing around $1.36. Despite this short-term strength, the token remains down 18% over the past month and faces a major hurdle: more than 2 billion XRP clustered near $1.60. This massive sell wall has repeatedly capped upside attempts, with the February 15 spike to $1.67 quickly reversed.

Technical indicators reveal a hidden bearish divergence that explains XRP's struggle. While price formed lower highs between February 6 and March 2, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) made higher highs. This divergence typically signals weakening momentum and often precedes pullbacks. The pattern has kept XRP trapped between $1.43 and $1.27, with sellers stepping in aggressively at resistance levels.

However, institutional flows and on-chain metrics suggest underlying strength. XRP ETFs have attracted $6.97 million in net inflows in early March, already reaching 45% of January's total. Combined with declining liveliness metrics indicating long-term holder accumulation, these factors suggest institutional conviction remains intact despite price rejections. The critical question is whether this support can propel XRP through the $1.60 resistance or if the sell wall will trigger another rejection.