The U.S. Air Force must acquire at least 500 sixth-generation fighters and bombers to prevail against China, according to the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies. The think tank recommends 300 F-47 fighters and 200 B-21 Raider stealth bombers, exceeding current procurement plans. This strategic buildup aims to counter China's growing military capabilities in the Pacific region.

Former F-16 pilot Heather Penney warned that without sufficient combat aircraft reserves, the U.S. risks protracted wars of attrition similar to past conflicts in Korea, Vietnam, and Ukraine. Penney emphasized that China is deliberately building capabilities to establish the entire western Pacific as its sanctuary, potentially allowing it to win conflicts without significant resistance. The Air Force's recent successful strike operations demonstrate capability but highlight limitations in replacing lost aircraft.

The Mitchell Institute calls for interim measures including maintaining legacy bombers until at least 100 B-21s are operational and accelerating procurement of F-35As and F-15EXs. The institute recommends purchasing 74 F-35As and 24 F-15EXs annually to reverse decades of force reductions. These recommendations challenge current Air Force strategies of retiring older aircraft to fund new development, arguing instead for a one-for-one replacement rate while augmenting forces with autonomous drones.

Quick Fact: The Air Force plans to retire all B-1s and B-2s in the next decade, leaving only B-52s and B-21s in its bomber fleet.