According to Ruth Ben-Ghiat, an expert on authoritarianism, Donald Trump is exhibiting behaviors that have historically led to the downfall of strongmen. Ben-Ghiat believes Trump is making the mistake of believing his own rhetoric, a pattern she has observed in leaders like Mussolini and Putin. This perspective comes amid declining approval ratings, suggesting a potential shift in public sentiment.

Ben-Ghiat, a history professor at NYU and author of “Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present,” describes this phenomenon as “autocratic backfire.” This occurs when leaders isolate themselves from expert advice, implement failing policies without scrutiny, and respond with increasingly risky actions. The result is a disillusioned populace and erosion of support from elites, a dangerous combination.

This analysis is particularly relevant given the current political climate and the upcoming US election. Comparisons to historical figures like Mussolini are not new, but they gain weight when made by an expert. Investors and business leaders should pay attention, as political instability and shifts in public opinion can have significant economic consequences.

The essay cited in The New York Times, offers a detailed look at the historical patterns that Ben-Ghiat sees emerging around Trump. What happens next depends on how Trump and his administration respond to these criticisms and the evolving political landscape. The potential for policy U-turns and changing investor sentiment are likely.