President Donald Trump has signed an executive order imposing tariffs on countries that sell oil to Cuba, primarily targeting Mexico. This move intensifies pressure on Havana, which is already grappling with a severe energy crisis. Trump's order follows speculation that Mexico might reduce oil shipments to Cuba, a key ally of the U.S. adversary. Mexico has been a vital oil supplier, sending nearly 20,000 barrels per day in 2025, though this figure has since dropped to around 7,000 barrels. The order comes as Cuba faces mounting economic and energy challenges, exacerbated by U.S. sanctions.

The tariffs are a strategic maneuver to isolate Cuba further, as it relies heavily on foreign oil to sustain its economy. Mexico, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, has maintained a delicate balance between supporting Cuba and managing its relationship with the U.S. The order may force Mexico to make tough decisions, potentially altering its oil export strategy. This move also signals a shift in Trump's foreign policy, using economic pressure to achieve geopolitical goals.

The impact on Mexico's state-owned oil company, Pemex, could be substantial. Pemex's shipments to Cuba, while reduced, still represent a significant portion of Cuba's oil supply. The order may push Mexico to diversify its oil export markets or seek alternative energy partnerships. For Cuba, the tariffs could lead to further economic instability, potentially fueling internal unrest.

Looking ahead, the order may spark retaliation from Cuba's other allies, such as Russia and the remaining sympathizers in Latin America. The situation underscores the complex interplay between energy security and geopolitical strategy, with the U.S. leveraging its economic power to influence regional dynamics.