State Rep. James Talarico has surged ahead of U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary, according to a new Chism Strategies poll. Talarico now leads Crockett 52%-40% among 472 primary voters surveyed February 23-24, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.

This marks a dramatic reversal from a University of Texas poll just days earlier that showed Crockett leading 56%-44%. The shift follows Talarico's February 16 appearance on Stephen Colbert's show, which drew 9 million YouTube viewers. Both polls show the race within the margin of error, making predictions difficult as Democrats report record early voting turnout.

On the Republican side, Attorney General Ken Paxton leads incumbent John Cornyn 41%-30% in the primary, with a May 26 runoff likely. The poll of 529 voters shows a 3-percentage-point margin of error. Notably, Cornyn would gain 10 points in a runoff with Donald Trump's endorsement, according to the survey.