Russia plans to maintain steady Urals crude exports in March by redirecting shipments to China as India reduces purchases following its trade deal with the U.S. The shift comes as seaborne Urals cargoes face narrowing export options next month, with India expected to sharply cut intake.

China, the world's top crude importer, has emerged as the primary alternative market. Turkey, the third-largest Urals buyer, lacks capacity to process additional Russian barrels. Market participants anticipate Urals discounts in China could widen by $2–$5 per barrel from the current $10-$12 delivered-to-port basis, with some expecting deeper cuts ahead.

Russian oil imports to China could reach a record 2.1 million barrels per day in February as independent refiners capitalize on discounted cargoes. However, analysts warn that Chinese demand for Russian oil may be approaching its peak. April could prove critical as Chinese refiners complete their purchasing cycle and potential production cuts loom. India's imports of Russian oil fell 12% in January from December, with volumes projected to drop to about 400,000 bpd in April, leaving Nayara refinery as the only remaining importer.