A JPMorgan Chase Institute analysis reveals that while Trump-era tariffs have successfully reduced American reliance on Chinese suppliers, midsize U.S. businesses are paying a steep price for the transition. The study, examining firms with revenues between $10 million and $1 billion, shows that monthly tariff payments have tripled since early 2025 following aggressive trade policy changes.

Despite the financial burden, the strategy appears to be achieving its goal of decoupling from China. Outflows from midsize U.S. firms to Chinese suppliers have dropped by approximately 20% since 2024. However, this retreat hasn't meant abandoning global trade entirely. Instead, American companies are rapidly shifting their sourcing to alternative markets, with payments to Southeast Asia, Japan, and India accelerating as firms seek to bypass the highest levies on Beijing.

The burden falls disproportionately on midsize firms, which lack the scale to absorb sustained cost increases compared to multinational corporations. While international payment volumes have remained stable, the JPMorgan researchers warn that this stability may mask deeper financial strain. The removal of the de minimis exemption in 2025 has further increased costs for smaller importers, closing a loophole many previously relied upon.