Florida's orange harvest is projected to reach just 12 million boxes this season, the smallest since 1930, as citrus greening disease, hurricanes, and urban development devastate groves. The bacterial infection has been killing trees since around 2000, causing fruits to become smaller, greener, and bitter. Hurricane Ian, Nicole, and Milton since 2022 have compounded the destruction, leaving farmers struggling to stay afloat.

Citrus greening disease has proven incurable, stunting tree growth and destroying roots. Rapid urban development has also removed many groves from production. While treatments have helped some trees recover, Matt Joyner, CEO of Florida Citrus Mutual, told Insurance Journal that restoring yields "is going to take a number of years." The financial strain has already forced many farmers out of business, with remaining growers frustrated by the lack of research breakthroughs and losses from worsening storms.

To address the crisis, Florida lawmakers are considering legislation to reduce sugar content requirements for orange juice, while California's predicted high output this year should help stabilize prices. Scientists are also experimenting with genetically modified trees resistant to citrus greening, which could provide the breakthrough needed to save the industry. With smaller harvests typically driving up grocery prices, consumers should expect continued volatility in orange juice costs as the situation develops.