The Trump administration asserts large volumes of oil are transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with Energy Secretary Chris Wright claiming over 15 million barrels moved last Tuesday and a seven-day average exceeding 8 million barrels daily. However, commercial ship trackers estimate only 2 million to 6 million barrels a day, and industry loading data does not corroborate the higher figures. Discrepancies arise from ships crossing at night with transponders off, varying measurement periods, and assumptions about vessel capacity.

Wright argues private firms undercount covert movements, but Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston notes the remarkable consistency among trackers and the lack of independent validation for White House numbers. U.K. Maritime Trade Operations, citing U.S. Navy data, reported 74 transits from Thursday to Saturday but noted commercial traffic remained at reduced levels. The gap echoes the market's "missing barrels" problem. Benchmark Brent crude futures hover around $90 a barrel, well off wartime highs, signaling markets are not desperate.

The U.S. Navy has guided tankers along a protected Omani route, eroding Iran's control, though Iran responded in July by attacking ships using the corridor.