President Trump entered the Gulf confrontation without a Plan B—or C, D, E or F—when his expectation of rapid Iranian regime collapse failed to materialize. He consciously accepted the risk of spiking gasoline prices from potential Strait of Hormuz disruption, launching pressure on Tehran without seeking public or congressional support he knew he wouldn't receive. By all signs, he was willing to risk losing his domestic base over this strategic gamble.

One mistake he has avoided is allowing Iran's predictable retaliatory actions to become leverage for abandoning his original objectives. However, another risk looms larger: he won't deploy large numbers of ground troops even if that's what achieving his stated goals—which amount to regime change—would require. This constraint significantly limits his options for achieving the objectives he keeps citing.

The piece suggests Trump may be prepared to lose his domestic base over this issue. If the strategy fails, the US and its allies would need to return to deterring Iran through other means. The American political system can always remove a failed president and cast his party into the political wilderness.