The New York Fed’s latest credit‑card delinquency gauge shows 13% of balances 90 days past due in Q1, flirting with the post‑2008 peak. While the figure sounds alarming, total card debt sits at $1.3 trillion, roughly $11,500 per household, about $1,600 lower than the 2007 peak in real terms. The rise follows a slowdown in new credit‑card lending, prompting worries that consumers could hit a ceiling as inflation pressures wages.

Higher wages cushion the burden. The Fed’s debt‑service metric recorded consumer payments at 5.4% of disposable income in Q4, down from over 7% two decades ago. Meanwhile, only 3% of card balances are 30‑day past due, a drop from the 4‑plus percent seen in 2007 and the near‑7% height a few years later. Lower delinquency rates also reflect tighter underwriting by banks, which have curbed risk exposure since the crisis.

Investors should note that the delinquency spike reflects a narrow slice of the market rather than a systemic surge. With debt‑service costs easing and households carrying less real card debt, the credit‑card sector remains resilient despite the headline‑grabbing delinquency rate. The data suggests no immediate credit‑risk shock for the broader economy. Credit‑card issuers have also benefited from higher interest spreads as rates climb, bolstering profitability even as delinquency ticks up.