Oil prices jumped this morning after a fresh U.S. strike round in Iran. The most‑traded Brent crude futures rose about 3% to $96 a barrel, clawing back yesterday’s dip below $94. Traders tied the move to lingering hopes for a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz despite recent back‑and‑forth attacks.

U.S. equity futures trimmed earlier gains but remained positive, with S&P 500 contracts up roughly 0.5%. Treasury yields slipped as investors priced in lower inflation risk, yet CME data still show a near‑60% probability of a Fed rate hike by year‑end. The mixed signals keep markets cautious.

The week’s agenda includes Thursday’s release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, which will test how war‑driven price pressures affect monetary policy. On the earnings front, Salesforce and Costco are slated to report, adding to a strong season where S&P 500 firms have posted a 28% jump in first‑quarter earnings—the fastest growth since Q4 2021.

With Brent hovering below the psychologically important $100 barrier, investors breathe a slight relief while still watching Hormuz developments. The current price level limits cost pressures on airlines and manufacturers, but any escalation could quickly rewrite the risk premium baked into oil‑linked assets. Market participants now weigh geopolitical risk against modest rate‑rise expectations.