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Nasdaq's 13-Day Streak Revives Market Structure Debate

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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The Nasdaq Composite's 13th consecutive gain on Friday marks an unusual streak—not seen since George H.W. Bush occupied the White House. The index's Iran relief rally has caught traders' attention, but this isn't just about Middle East tensions. Markets have been behaving strangely since the Covid-19 plunge, and some analysts see structural reasons behind the shift.

Before the pandemic, a rebound from a steep selloff typically saw a retest of prior lows. Chris Watling at Longview Economics examined decades of data across 15 similar non-bear market episodes and found that pattern held nearly 80% of the time. Since 2020, that historical rhythm has vanished—sharp pullbacks no longer follow the traditional retest trajectory.

Watling offers one theory: the rise of "multi-strat pod shops," massive hedge funds containing several smaller funds. These operations use borrowed money and employ tight risk management, potentially keeping them from piling into the same trades that once created predictable pullbacks. Whether this represents a permanent structural change or another market anomaly remains to be seen.