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Inflation Fears Return on Geopolitics, AI

Wall Street Journal Markets •
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Markets experienced a downturn as President Trump indicated a potential end to the ceasefire with Iran, suggesting continued strikes. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.1%, or 576 points, though the Nasdaq Composite eked out a 0.2% gain. This geopolitical tension fueled a sharp rise in energy prices, with Brent crude futures climbing over 5% to near $78 per barrel and diesel futures jumping 11% following Russia's announced export ban.

Bond markets also reacted, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield reaching a high of 4.567%, marking its longest upward streak since 2024. European government debt yields also saw significant increases. The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed growing concerns among central bankers about potential inflation driven by a surge in artificial-intelligence investment.

While political scrutiny of AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI intensifies, the long-term business impact may be less severe than immediate concerns suggest, particularly as both companies prepare for initial public offerings. The market's sensitivity to geopolitical events and emerging inflationary pressures from technology sectors remains pronounced.