U.S. natural‑gas futures rose Monday as the National Weather Service projected unusually warm conditions for the first weekend of July. Traders see hotter weather boosting cooling demand, while recent production cuts have trimmed supply growth. On the NYMEX, contracts jumped 1.1% to $3.268 per million British thermal units, tightening the market ahead of the summer peak.

Analyst Eli Rubin of EBW Analytics warned that the market now balances two opposing forces: intermittent bullish heat and a bearish supply backdrop from rising output limits. He noted that technical charts point to a near‑term resistance level near the July final settlement price, where traders often lock in positions before the contract expires.

The price lift adds pressure on utilities that have hedged at lower levels, while power generators may see tighter margins if cooling demand spikes. With the July contract serving as a benchmark for downstream pricing, the 1% rise signals that market participants expect a tighter supply‑demand equation through the peak season.

Investors watching the commodity will likely monitor upcoming inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration, which could confirm whether the current supply curve can sustain the upward trend. A sustained rally could prompt hedge funds to increase long positions, while any surprise on the supply side may trigger a swift correction.