President Trump has succeeded at times in calming crude-oil markets even as the Iran war rages on. But he doesn’t have the same sway over gasoline prices, which ultimately matter more to consumers. Despite the resumption of U.S.-Iran hostilities, U.S. benchmark crude prices are hovering around $80 a barrel. That is about 18% above where they were before the Iran war began.

By contrast, gasoline prices remain 32% higher at $3.94 a gallon, according to energy data firm OPIS. So-called gasoline crack spreads, which measure the difference between gasoline and crude-oil prices, are averaging 90 cents a gallon so far this month. That is the highest level in four years, according to data from Novi Labs.

One reason: fuel markets didn’t have the buffers that crude oil had. This means that even if there’s another ceasefire that allows oil to again flow, gasoline and diesel prices are likely to stay higher for longer. Refining capacity is strained, and fuel markets don’t have much of a buffer to absorb shocks.

As a result, consumers should expect elevated pump prices to persist, even if oil markets stabilize. The disconnect between crude and gasoline costs highlights the structural tightness in the refining sector that will keep crack spreads elevated.