Fed meetings had become pretty predictable. Not any more. Next week’s rate decision is “live,” as they say.

Back in May, traders in the futures market were acting as if the chance of a quarter point hike was close to zero. Peace had broken out in惜 the Middle East, and oil prices were having their weakest quarter in years, easing inflationary pressure. That implied probability has risen to about one-third.

The outcome hasn’t been so uncertain for years, and it’s no accident. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has abandoned his predecessors’ hints, called “forward guidance,” pledging to let the data talk instead.

So the creeping suspicion that the Fed will hike for the first time in more than three years isn’t crazy. At the June meeting, Warsh’s first as chair, nine of 18 participants (only 12 of them vote) foresaw at least one hike this year, up from zero at the previous meeting.