Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed board are expected to keep policy unchanged, but Strategy Asset Managers CEO Thomas Hulick says energy prices now dominate market moves. Futures pricing oil above $85 a barrel are pushing inflation expectations higher and sparking daily swings in Treasury yields. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East keep the bond market jittery and could spill over into equity markets.

Nuveen macro‑credit head Laura Cooper noted that March data showed solid payroll growth, contained inflation and upbeat retail sales, suggesting households can absorb the energy shock. She argues that financial conditions remain supportive, allowing the Fed to stay data‑dependent and keep its messaging steady. This cushion also reduces the urgency for immediate fiscal adjustments, easing pressure on Treasury volatility slightly.

Hulick predicts Treasury yields will settle toward fundamental levels only if oil retreats to around $70 a barrel. Until energy prices stabilize, inflation expectations will stay elevated and the market will continue to price in the possibility of later rate hikes. Investors should therefore monitor crude price movements as the primary driver of near‑term bond volatility, as long as geopolitical risks stay muted.